Error-corrected qubits matter more than raw physical qubit totals.
Quantum Risk Institute
Bitcoin Quantum Index Methodology
Method in one sentenceEvidence first
The Bitcoin Quantum Index scores public quantum capability against cryptographic milestones, then translates that evidence into a 0-100 Quantum Threat Level.
What we measure
We measure public evidence of quantum computing progress that is relevant to public-key cryptography. The score is not based on general excitement, press releases, physical qubit counts alone, or crypto market movement.
Cryptographic attacks need very long computations that remain accurate.
Public, verifiable demonstrations anchor the scale.
We separate Bitcoin-specific risk from broader public-key risk.
How the score is interpreted
| Level | Public milestone | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | No error-corrected quantum computer | No practical public-key threat from public systems. |
| 10 | 100 logical qubits | Early fault-tolerant direction, still not Bitcoin-threatening. |
| 20 | Tiny Shor key breaks | Algorithm demonstration on toy-scale keys. |
| 30 | 64-bit RSA/ECC | Major research progress, not a production security break. |
| 40 | 128-bit RSA/ECC | Clearer cryptanalytic relevance in controlled settings. |
| 50 | 512-bit RSA | Historic public-key milestone, still smaller than modern deployed targets. |
| 60 | 1024-bit RSA | Legacy system risk becomes more serious. |
| 70 | RSA-2048 | Mainstream public-key infrastructure becomes directly threatened. |
| 80 | ECC P-256 demo | Elliptic curve systems enter public demonstration territory. |
| 90 | Exposed BTC public keys | Bitcoin-specific signature migration becomes urgent. |
| 100 | Large-scale cryptanalysis | Broad operational public-key cryptography risk. |
Why physical qubit headlines are not enough
A machine can have many physical qubits and still be unable to run a useful cryptographic attack. Fault-tolerant quantum computing requires logical qubits built from physical qubits, low error rates, error correction cycles, high-quality gates, and enough runtime to complete deep circuits.
Update cadence
The index is reviewed weekly and can be updated sooner if a major public, verifiable quantum computing milestone appears. Each update should record the date, evidence reviewed, score change, and reason for the change.
What the score does not do
- It does not predict Bitcoin price.
- It does not claim to know classified capabilities.
- It does not treat press-release language as proof.
- It does not say quantum computing has no future relevance.
- It does not replace cryptographic migration planning for long-lived systems.